With his most popular S2F model facing extinction with Bitcoin halving, PlanB unveils stock to flow cross asset model
A year ago, pseudonymous crypto quant PlanB published the stock-to-flow (S2F) Bitcoin (BTC) price model that measures the world’s most popular digital currency price based on two factors—the stock that’s the amount of Bitcoins in circulation and the flow that’s the number of new Bitcoins getting into circulation.
This popular model which has so far been accurate in charting price performance has predicted a bitcoin market value of $1trn after May 2020 halving—the third since its inception. This, in turn, translates into a bitcoin price of $55,000.
A year on, the S2F model faces its biggest-ever threat, with its year-end price target now predicted at $30,000. Notwithstanding the threat, PlanB last month took to Twitter to dispel the fears. “(In my opinion) bitcoin 2020 halving will be like 2012 & 2016. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise) 1-2 yrs after the halving,” he wrote.
Taking on crypto critics in a more recent podcast interview with Stephan Livera, PlanB says he has updated the S2F model into stock to flow cross asset (S2FX) model, which he says is an integration of the two formulas he had—one formula for the time series Bitcoin model and one formula for the gold and silver.
And he has asserted that his S2FX model will actually “outlive the dollar”. “I think the model will not break down. The dollar will break down. In fact, that’s a certainty because all 400 of them went down in the last few years. There’s none that survive.
“Reserve currencies won’t last for 200 years. It will come to an end, the dollar. It’s not a thing that’s even debated that much. But yeah, so I agree. I think the model will outlive the dollar,” he says.
The avid crypto watcher goes on to say that Bitcoin will be money in times to come. “I think Bitcoin will be much bigger than just an investment, just an asset. It will be money.” he adds.